Stock planning / 5 MIN READ

Will your line run short this Christmas or Chinese New Year?

Say it's 23 December. The last roll of pallet wrap is on the machine, the lorry from your supplier was due on the 19th, and the supplier has now shut for the holidays. Nobody can promise you a delivery before the new year.

By KP Trading & Distribution · 5 minute read

Will your line run short this Christmas or Chinese New Year?, KP Trading and Distribution. Photo is illustrative. — Christmas and Lunar New Year stock planning · Photo is illustrative

Your line will probably run short if your reorder points were set for a normal month. Christmas is when demand peaks and suppliers close. Lunar New Year 2027 arrives on Saturday 6 February, which is 11 days earlier than in 2026. So the orders you place in the next few weeks have to cover both.

What is different about Lunar New Year 2027?

Lunar New Year falls on 6 February 2027, and Hong Kong's government holidays run on the 6th, 8th and 9th. Factories in Asia close well before and reopen well after. One freight forwarder estimates a slowdown from 9 to 16 January, a shutdown from about 30 January to 14 February, and full recovery around March.

That's a forwarder's estimate, not an official notice. Official dates are due in November or December. Our advice is to plan for a disruption of six to eight weeks, not the week or two the calendar suggests.

If any of your consumables are made in Asia, such as film, gloves or plastic components, ask your supplier when their stock was shipped. If it's not already on the water, it may not arrive before March.

Is the Red Sea still a problem?

It's still fluid. Sending ships round the Cape added 10 to 14 days. Carriers have been returning to the Suez route since late August 2026, which saves 14 to 21 days, but it isn't settled. When routes change, ports can get congested and containers arrive in a bunch or not at all.

So a lead time quoted in September may not hold in January. Ask your supplier what lead time they're planning on today, not what they used last year.

Cost is moving as well. The Office for National Statistics reports input prices up 6.1% in the year to August 2026, with plastic products rising on resin costs. The Food and Drink Federation's July dashboard shows UK haulage up 6.7% and the Freightos freight index up 48.9% on a year earlier. Its Q2 report says small manufacturers' costs rose 6.3% against 1.2% for large ones. If you're a smaller site, there's less room to absorb a rush order at a premium.

What does a stock-out really cost?

The roll of wrap costs a few pounds. The stoppage costs far more.

Here's an illustrative example. Say a line makes 500 pallets a week and runs out of wrap for four hours. Six people stand idle at an assumed £15 an hour, which is £360. The emergency order from a local merchant costs an assumed £2 a roll more on 30 rolls, which is £60 plus a van. Then add overtime to catch up, say another £400. That's about £820 before a retailer order is missed.

The missed retailer order is the real cost, and it's the one you can't put a figure on in advance. Once a booked delivery slot has gone, you can't buy it back. A few of those in a Christmas fortnight can wipe out a good month.

Not sure what a stoppage would cost you? We'll work it out with you on site.

How do you set a reorder point?

You don't need software. You need 12 weeks of usage and one conversation with your supplier about lead time.

The formula is usage per week multiplied by lead time in weeks, plus safety stock. When your stock falls to that number, you order. The reorder point is the level, not the date.

Here's an illustrative worked example for pallet wrap. Say you used 120 rolls over the last 12 weeks, which is 10 a week. Your supplier's lead time is five weeks, but with the Lunar New Year disruption you plan on eight. Safety stock is two weeks of usage, or 20 rolls.

Normal reorder point: 10 x 5 + 20 = 70 rolls. Reorder point for the next few months: 10 x 8 + 20 = 100 rolls. If you were reordering at 70, you'd have run out about three weeks before the new delivery landed.

Do the same sum for each item. Use real usage, not what the stock system says you should use. Add extra weeks for Christmas if your volumes rise.

What should you order this month?

Start with the items that stop the line outright: pallet wrap, pallet edges, layer pads and gloves. These are the products where running out means waiting, because nobody holds a substitute on the shelf.

Check three things this week. First, count what you have and divide by weekly usage to see how many weeks you've got. Second, ask each supplier for their confirmed lead time and Christmas shutdown dates in writing. Third, place any order that needs to cover January and February now, not in December.

The buyer or stores lead should own this. Review it every month, and again whenever a supplier changes a lead time.

Can someone else hold the stock for you?

Yes. We buy ahead and hold stock in the UK. You call it off when you need it and pay on delivery, so you're not tying up cash or pallet space in your own warehouse.

Every product has several manufacturers behind it, and we test what you buy and lock the spec. We never swap a product without your approval. You get one account, one order, one delivery and one invoice.

Frequently asked questions

When should I order for Chinese New Year 2027?

Place orders for January and February cover in the next few weeks. A forwarder estimates a slowdown from 9 to 16 January and a shutdown from about 30 January to 14 February, with recovery around March. Official dates are due in November or December.

How much safety stock do I need?

There's no single answer. Two weeks of usage is a sensible start for items that stop the line. Raise it for anything with a single supplier or a long lead time, and review after 12 weeks of real data.

Is the Suez route open again?

Carriers have been returning to Suez since late August 2026, but the position is fluid. Plan with a lead time that allows for either route, and ask your supplier which they're using.

What if I only have a few weeks of data?

Use what you have and update it. A rough reorder point beats none. Revisit it once you've got 12 weeks.

Send us your last 12 weeks of usage

Send us your last 12 weeks of usage on wrap, edges, layer pads and gloves. We'll show you your reorder points and hold the stock in the UK for call-off.

If you'd like, we'll also do a free site check. We walk the site with your operations team for about 30 minutes and send a written report. There's no contract.

Email sales@kptrading.uk or call 020 4576 5500.